March Newsletter - Good Prices and Good News don't come together

2026 - That year - "Kaash 2026 mein invest kiya hota"

History shows that after markets stagnate during periods of crisis, the following 1–3 years have often delivered strong returns for patient investors.

The recent escalation in West Asia has once again brought geopolitical uncertainty into financial markets.

Whenever tensions rise globally, markets tend to respond with volatility, fear, and hesitation from investors.

And naturally, the same question begins to appear:

“Should I pause my investments until things become clearer?”

History suggests that doing the opposite has often worked better.

Markets Have Seen This Before

Global markets have faced several major crises over the last few decades:

• The Gulf War

• The Global Financial Crisis

• The COVID-19 pandemic

• The Russia–Ukraine conflict

  
  

Each of these events created sharp corrections and uncertainty.

Yet over time, markets recovered as corporate earnings, economic growth, and innovation continued to drive long-term progress.

A Pattern That Appears Repeatedly

Markets occasionally go through extended periods of stagnation, where returns remain flat for months.

Interestingly, these phases have often been followed by strong forward returns.

Below is a historical look at what happened when the Nifty stagnated for roughly 18 months.

The pattern is worth noting.

After extended periods where markets delivered almost no returns, the following 1–3 years frequently produced strong gains for patient investors.

While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, history does provide useful context.

👍 If this chart changed your perspective, feel free to Share this Blog so more investors can discover it.

Why This Happens

During crises or uncertain periods:

• Investor sentiment weakens

• Valuations compress

• Risk premiums rise

  
  

In simple terms, prices adjust faster than fundamentals.

For long-term investors, this often improves the future risk-reward balance.

The Real Risk: Investor Behaviour

The biggest risk during volatile markets is rarely the market itself.

It is investor behaviour.

During corrections we often see investors:

• Pausing SIPs

• Reducing equity exposure

• Waiting for “clarity” before investing again

But markets usually recover long before clarity returns to the headlines.

💬 If the recent volatility has made you rethink your portfolio strategy, it may be a good time to review whether your asset allocation still aligns with your long-term goals.

Why Continuing SIPs Matters

Systematic investing works best during uncertain markets.

When markets fall or stagnate:

• SIPs accumulate more units

• Average purchase cost declines

• Long-term compounding improves

Stopping SIPs during volatility interrupts the very process designed to help investors navigate market cycles.

Looking Ahead

While geopolitical tensions may influence markets in the short term, long-term equity returns are driven by:

• Economic growth

• Corporate earnings

• Productivity and innovation

From a long-term perspective, the next three years could offer attractive opportunities for disciplined investors — especially those who continue investing during uncertain phases.

Final Thought

Investors often wait for clarity before committing capital.

But markets rarely wait for clarity.

History suggests that staying invested during periods of stagnation has often been the foundation for strong long-term returns.

Warm Regards,

Nikhil Gupta

Sage Capital

Clarity in chaos. Discipline in volatility.