November Pulse - Sage Views - Crisis Confusion Clarity

"Stick to your plan, Ignore the ongoing sentiments in the market" - Radhakishan Damani

Dear Investor,

October 2025 marked a highly positive month for the Indian market, delivering the strongest monthly gains in seven months as relatively better corporate earnings and reasonable valuations attracted foreign investors back. The Nifty 50 rose 4.5% and the BSE Sensex climbed 4.6%, leaving both indices almost 2% from their record closing highs set in late September 2024. Broader segments also advanced, with small-caps up 4.7% and mid-caps gaining 5.8%. Sector-wise, all 16 major sectors ended October in the green. Nifty Realty led with a 9.2% surge, followed by PSU Bank (+8.7%), Oil & Gas (+6.3%), and Infrastructure (+6.2%). No sector contributed negatively to Nifty returns.

Market Outlook: We believe that coordinated monetary and fiscal support, coupled with the RBI’s accommodative lending measures, are positive for the markets and are already reflected in Q2FY26 earnings. We foresee a modest upside in the market this quarter, supported by festive-driven consumption, a rebound in Q3 earnings, and potential RBI rate cuts, though tempered by global trade uncertainties arising from U.S. tariffs. On the earnings front, Q2FY26 profits are expected to grow by 7-8%, with a stronger recovery anticipated in Q3, led by GST rate reductions that benefit domestic-focused sectors and lower borrowing costs. Financials and metals are likely to deliver decent performance.

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What should investors do?

Investors should stay invested in the market, and this is the time to become cautiously optimistic as earnings have started showing some positive signs. Valuations remain elevated; we believe this to be a longer time correction phase that will carry forward to 2026. As reiterated in our previous newsletters, it is important for investors to keep a moderate return expectation from the market rather than the one like in 2023-24. Focus on quality stocks with certain cash flows and solid fundamentals.

Some learnings this month I would like to share are on how are 3 C’s - Crisis, Clarity, and Confusion can be helpful for investors.

Crisis comes when no one really expects one (black swan event like a COVID or Subprime crisis) and those who invest during a crisis make the most money however it’s very difficult to invest during a crisis.

Confusion is one of the best times to invest, i.e. almost most of the time, since we are often confused about where the markets are heading, and these are the times when markets have not factored in something from the future. There will be times during confusion when a lot of stocks and sectors will be trading at a discount or will be reasonably valued.

Clarity is when you are almost certain about what is going to happen in the future, since there are facts, data supporting it, and hence it will always get discounted by markets. In such cases, more often there’s a bull market since everyone is invested during times of clarity.

What we have learnt from this is that its important to just stay invested at all times keeping in mind your risk profile, financial goals and most importantly, keeping the right asset allocation. Start with knowing your Risk Profile today and we will take care of the rest.

Specialised Investment Funds (SIFs) are now available on our app. Reach out to us to know more about SIFs. There is a good opportunity available this month with Diviniti Equity Long Short SIF by ITI Mutual Fund for investors who would like to have capital protection during market volatility, along with equity-like returns in the long term. Investors having a time horizon of 3+ years can invest in this fund.

You can also sign up for our app and get started with our all-in-one investing app. This will help you to make goal-based investments, and with our guidance, you will be able to do the right asset allocation and optimise your portfolio returns.

Our all-in-one link to access all our resources is here: https://linktr.ee/sage.capital

Apart from all this, feel free to Call/WhatsApp us at +91-8369664202 or reach our team at invest@sagecapital.in

Warm Regards,

Nikhil Gupta

www.sagecapital.in