April Market Pulse - Not too early. Not too late.

The year that will be - "Kaash 2026 mein invest kiya hota"

Why improving certainty, reasonable valuations, and still-lower levels may offer a good entry point for long-term investors

Over the past month, markets have quietly staged a recovery.

This has come at a time when global tensions, particularly in West Asia,are beginning to show early signs of de-escalation, with progress in ceasefire discussions improving overall sentiment.

While uncertainty hasn’t disappeared, it has reduced meaningfully.

And markets have responded.

A Shift in Narrative

Just a few weeks ago, the dominant narrative was:

• Rising geopolitical risk

• Elevated volatility

• Concerns around global spillover

Today, the narrative is gradually changing:

• Progress in ceasefire talks

• India is relatively insulated from the direct impact

• Volatility beginning to ease

Markets tend to move ahead of clarity — and this appears to be one such phase.

Where Do Markets Stand Today?

Despite the recent recovery:

📉 Markets are still ~10% below their all-time highs

Which is important.

Because it tells us:

• Valuations are no longer stretched across the board

• Select opportunities are available

• Risk-reward has improved compared to peak levels

📊 Valuations Are Moving Towards Fair Value

Valuations have been a key concern for investors over the past couple of years.

However, recent price corrections combined with expected earnings growth have brought markets closer to more reasonable levels.

As the chart highlights:

• The Nifty 50 P/E ratio is now close to its long-term average

• Adjusted for expected earnings, valuations appear even more comfortable

• The 10-year rolling average suggests markets are approaching fair value territory

This is an important shift.

Markets tend to offer better long-term outcomes when:

✔ Valuations are near historical averages

✔ Earnings visibility is improving

✔ Sentiment is stabilising

In simple terms, we are no longer in a phase of excess optimism — but moving into a

more balanced and investable environment.

Earnings: The Next Trigger

The coming quarter will be important.

We expect improving year-on-year earnings visibility, which could provide support to markets going forward.

Markets are currently transitioning from:

👉 Liquidity-driven movement

👉 To earnings-supported growth

And that is a healthier phase for long-term investors.

The Question Investors Are Asking

As markets recover, a familiar question emerges:

“Have I missed the opportunity?”

History suggests this is rarely the case.

Why It May Not Be Too Late

Even after the recent bounce:

• Markets are not at peak valuations

• Earnings are expected to improve

• Volatility is reducing

• Certainty is gradually returning

  
  

This combination is important.

Because markets typically perform well when:

✔ Uncertainty reduces

✔ Earnings visibility improves

✔ Valuations are reasonable

💬 If you’re unsure whether your current allocation reflects this changing environment, it may be a good time to review your portfolio positioning.

A Better Environment for Investors

Compared to a month ago, today’s environment offers:

• Lower volatility

• Better visibility

• Improved sentiment

And yet, prices are still not at previous highs.

This creates a relatively balanced entry point for investors.

The Role of Discipline

Timing markets perfectly is difficult.

But participating in markets when:

• Risk-reward is improving

• Valuations are reasonable

• Earnings are picking up

  
  

…has historically worked well for long-term investors.

Looking Ahead

From current levels, with:

• reasonable valuations

• Improving earnings visibility

• Gradually stabilising the global environment

We believe investors could be well-positioned for healthy double-digit returns over the next 3 years, provided they remain disciplined.

Final Thought

Markets often feel most comfortable after a rally —

and most uncomfortable before one.

Today, we are somewhere in between.

Not at peak optimism.

Not at peak fear.

And that’s often where good long-term opportunities exist.

Warm Regards,

Nikhil Gupta

Clarity in chaos.

Discipline in volatility.